Tactical Voter’s Guide to US Senate

I suspect that my best contribution to the 2018 Midterms was the Tactical Voter’s Guide to California. In an open primary where you can end up with two Republicans on the general election ballot, it was important to identify Democrat front-runners early, so I did the homework: I made 27 recommendations that filled the gaps in CDP endorsements sheet, and I was only wrong only about 3 (https://medium.com/@angdraug/revisiting-the-2018-tactical-voters-guide-to-california-b7c43189bbdd). Many friends thanked me for making their down-ballot votes better informed.

In 2020, we are facing a similar problem. For the presidential election to make any difference, Democrats must also hold the House and take back the Senate. Without that, there won’t be any Supreme Court or federal justice nominations, no progressive laws, only more obstructionism and treason.

The Senate part is going to be difficult, harder even than taking back the presidency. It’s not enough to just vote in your local races anymore, especially if you live in a state like California that doesn’t have a US Senate election this year. If you want your country back, you have to get engaged with elections in all battleground states.

The formula is simple. If your family income is above median ($70,000 in California, $60,000 across US), set aside 3% of it to political donations this year. If you don’t earn that much, you might make more of an impact donating 60 hours of your time (3% of 50 work weeks) instead. If you can afford to do more, do more. And don’t spend it all in one place, spread it out. Make sure you donate both before and after the primaries where applicable.

Ballotpedia is always a good starting point to find races where you can make the most difference: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020

Vulnerable incumbent Democrats:
- Doug Jones (Alabama)
- Gary Peters (Michigan)
- Tina Smith (Minnesota)
- Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)
- Mark Warner (Virginia)

No further research needed on these states, please help the Democrat incumbents, they all need it and we need all of them to keep their seats.

Vulnerable incumbent Republicans:
- Dan Sullivan (Alaska)
- Cory Gardner (Colorado)
- David Perdue (Georgia)
- Joni Ernst (Iowa)
- Mitch McConnell (Kentucky)
- Bill Cassidy (Louisiana)
- Susan Collins (Maine)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (Mississippi)
- Steve Daines (Montana)
- Thom Tillis (North Carolina)
- Mike Rounds (South Dakota)
- John Cornyn (Texas)
- Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)

Other critical Senate elections:
- Special election in Arizona is D+2
- Special election in Georgia (which went from R+14 in 2014 to R+5 in 2016 to R+0 in 2018) means both Georgia Senate seats are in play
- Open seat in Kansas where Republican incumbent Pat Roberts isn’t running
- Open seat in New Mexico where Democrat incumbent Tom Udall isn’t running
- Open seat in Tennessee where Republican incumbent Lamar Alexander isn’t running
- Open seat in Wyoming where Republican incumbent Mike Enzi isn’t running

Alaska

Arizona

Colorado

Georgia

Iowa

The leader in Democratic endorsements Theresa Greenfield was criminally charged with election misconduct after her campaign manager falsified signatures on her candidate petition in 2018. Kimberly Graham has only been endorsed by two of the Bernie Sanders shadow PACs, and everything I said about Justice Democrats (https://medium.com/@angdraug/no-country-for-purity-ponies-1c199c0c0cc7) applies the same to the lot of them. This makes Michael Franken our best bet.

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Mississippi

Montana

New Mexico

North Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

West Virginia

Wyoming

I have opinions, and I am not afraid to use them.

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